Notes: Rankings are based on "BaRa+". BaRa+ is a metric used to measure overall card performance. It takes into account all projected outcomes as well as accounts for slugging %, batter speed, pitcher innings, & weighs singles as more advantageous than walks. Projected ERAs are based on FIP and may not coincide with BaRa+. Steals are projected based on single+ projections and a 13% "A speed" steal rate per time on 1B. #11: Ronald Acuna, Jr.
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National League West1st Place: San Francisco Giants (107-55) 2nd Place: Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56) 3rd Place: San Diego Padres (79-83) 4th Place: Colorado Rockies (74-87) 5th Place: Arizona Diamondbacks (52-110) National League Central1st Place: Milwaukee Brewers (95-67) 2nd Place: St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) 3rd Place: Cincinnati Reds (83-79) 4th Place: Chicago Cubs (71-91) 5th Place: Pittsburgh Pirates (61-101) National League East1st Place: Atlanta Braves (88-73) 2nd Place: Philadelphia Phillies (82-80) 3rd Place: New York Mets (77-85) 4th Place: Miami Marlins (67-95) 5th Place: Washington Nationals (65-97) One thing can be brutally clear with MLB Showdown. Bench guys suck. Once you go through your draft, God forbid you have to draft bench players...and these seem to always be cherry-picked 10 point no-names who get you in under your salary cap number. Inevitably these guys rot on your bench, never to see the light of day ever again.
Even if you draft like we do (no points, straight up snake draft), you rarely will ever use a bench player except to pinch hit for the pitcher or pinch run for a speed C. However...if you like to speed up your games and use managerial decisions instead of strats, like I know Bob and the guys do; you've already begun to internally build "house" rules. In my opinion, one of Showdown's flaws is that managers get too many "easy" decisions. I coached for a couple of years and I watch the MLB every single night. I love the chess matches that occur late in games in the National League games. The "if he brings in this guy out of the bullpen, I'll counter with him..." Not to mention managers move lineup pieces around daily based on matchup advantages. Most of those matchup advantages come via dexterity/handedness. Valparaiso University recently ran a study, looking at the advantages and disadvantages handedness played in pitcher vs. batter results. It measured 3 years of MLB data (2017-2019) and found the following: RHB vs. LHP: ~.330 OBP RHB vs. RHP: ~.285 OBP ----------------------------------------- LHB vs. RHP: ~.315 OBP LHB vs. LHP: ~.310 OBP Summarizing, there should be an added bonus to the pitcher or batter based on the handedness matchup. So we developed the following rule...is it perfect? No. Does it work & make a difference? Absolutely...This rule makes each of us study the next 3 hitters every single time before bringing in a reliever in the late innings. The Handedness Rule:
This turns walks into singles, walks into flyouts, singles into doubles, & doubles into homers...and I've actually found myself pinch hitting a left handed 2020 JP Crawford (170 pts) over a 2020 Tim Anderson (350 pts) vs. a right handed pitcher (keep in mind I also needed the extra +4 defense late in the game). But, when I run the numbers from my matchup calculator I created, it spit out the following slashes vs. 2020 Carlos Carrasco (RHP): Tim Anderson (R): .218/.290/.627 JP Crawford (L): .222/.315/.645 This actually leads you to make some significant managerial decisions based on the matchups and not just a generic scan over of the card...trust me when I tell you it makes the late inning substitutions much more engaging. Try it out and let me know what you think! Anyone who has played Showdown extensively quickly realizes that the game's point values are flawed. Of course many of us have gone chasing that formula only to realize it's fundamentally flawed at its core...you can't replicate it because I firmly believe there never was a real data-backed formula. Fast forward to fall, 2020 and in preparation for a league draft, I began pondering, "How can I accurately, objectively rank the player cards in this 2020 set?" More pondering led to spreadsheets & formulas and over the course of a few days I was able to accurately weight each card in the set. I named the formula "BatRate" or "BaRa". The purpose of BaRa is to answer questions like, "is it better to have a 10 OB hitter with 19-20 HR or an 8 OB hitter with 16-20 HR?" and "How much do walks on a chart decrease value?" And not only to answer that in a subjective matter, but to prove it with data...who is analytically more likely to produce the best outcomes. Here are the steps it took to create BaRa. If you don't like being a data nerd like me, skip past these paragraphs & just check out the top 12 below (keep in mind, the lower the BaRa, the better for a pitcher). Step 1: Translate the Data to Number of Outcomes BaRa first takes a ton of upfront data work. I took a spreadsheet of all the card's charts & basically had to transcribe them to fit in a formula. That means on the spreadsheet, instead of a hitter's HR chart reading 18-20, I had to change it to the number of outcomes, which in this case is 3 (I could roll an 18, 19, or 20). A pitcher with 1-9 SO would change to (9). I did this for all categories on a player's chart. I did this for all hitters and all pitchers. Step 2: Categorize & Average the Population of Cards in the Set Now, since it would take an insane amount of work to figure out how each batter would fare against each pitcher individually, I had to find a way to accurately group the population or cards in the set. In essence, I used Control & On Base to group pitchers & hitters respectively. For example, I would sort all 4 Control pitchers & average their outcomes to create the "typical 4 Control pitcher" or "typical 8 On Base hitter." Step 3: Weighting for the Population The next step was figuring out how many pitchers are a control 1 vs. control 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or how many hitters are an on base 8 vs. 9 for example...so it can be properly weighted for the set. This scales the likelihood a pitcher or hitter will face a certain quality of hitter or pitcher. With pitchers I also had to weight IP because I might see Trevor Bauer for 7 innings, but will only see Devin Williams for 1 inning. Step 4: Find the Percentages Now I have to figure out the raw data on the likelihood of each outcome. For example, Fernando Tatis Jr. (9 OB) faces a 6 Control pitcher. Run a quick mathematical formula and Tatis has a 3 in 20 chance of getting his chart (15%) and the pitcher has the inverse chance of getting his (85%). All outcomes are now weighted based on the likelihood of getting each chart. All of Tatis' outcomes are now scaled down to 15% and pitchers with 6 Control are scaled to 85%. Step 5: Collect all the Data So, at this point I could look at Fernando Tatis Jr. and see exactly what percentage chance he has of all outcomes vs. the average control 0 pitcher, the average control 1 pitcher, and all the way to control 6. I now have SO%, PO%, GO%, FO%, BB%, 1B%, 1B+%, 2B%, 3B% and HR% for every category of pitcher (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6 control). Tatis obviously mashes control 2's with a 7% chance of hitting a HR vs. 3.43% chance vs. control 6 pitchers. Step 6: Scale the Data for a Final Time Now we know how Tatis lines up against each type of control pitcher. Now we have to scale it for the number of pitchers with each control in the set (example...multiply control 2's by .31 since 31% of the pitchers in the set are control 2 and .28 for control 4's because 28% of the pitchers are control 4, etc.) The final product is the overall percentage chance of each outcome (4.90% chance of Tatis hitting a HR, 12.04% chance of a walk, etc.). Step 7: The BaRa Formula I wanted the formula to also be weighted for power, so BaRa uses very similar aspects to SLG%. The BaRa formula is as follows: (BB%*1)+(1B%*1.25)+(1B+%*1.5)+(2B%*2)+(3B%*3)+(HR%*4) I decided to weigh singles as 1.25 because simply put, singles are worth more than walks. The only time I can score a run on a walk is with the bases loaded. Singles are more important to scoring runs. We've all had that Showdown card where it seems like all you do is walk...and that's frustrating with runners in scoring position. 1B+ gets a 1.5 because I figured about half the time the base is occupied and you don't get the free steal. All of this is the same for pitchers, but with pitchers you want the lowest BaRa. Batters want the highest BaRa. BaRa's Shortcomings So, I wasn't able to figure out much of a formula to account for the following aspects of value to a player's Showdown card:
To comparatively rank SP and hitters, I used BaRa as a percentage above average. Below are the top 12 Showdown cards from 2020 according to BaRa. #12. Ian Anderson BaRa: .459 OBP: .315 SLG: .268 OPS: .583 Notes: Control 6 without giving up a double has Anderson tied for 1st in lowest expected SLG% against. Only hiccup on this card is the 5 IP. #11. Freddie Freeman BaRa: .638 OBP: .423 SLG: .520 OPS: .944 Notes: Yes, the NL MVP with an 11 OB is outside the top 10. C speed and the 3rd highest walk rate (17%) decrease Freddie's effective value. #10. Dallas Keuchel BaRa: .453 OBP: .300 SLG: .279 OPS: .579 Notes: Trade 1 control for 1 out and he's very comparable to Ian Anderson. The extra 1 IP gives him just enough boost. Again, no doubles + high control = SLG% gold. Give him a solid infield defense and turn double plays all day. #9. Mike Trout BaRa: .643 OBP: .347 SLG: .522 OPS: .869 Notes: The 9 OB and walks are the only major dings offensively for Trout. Like Freeman, he has a high walk rate (14.4%). He's 6th in SLG%. The power is real (5th in HR%) but this Trout card plays like an all out boom (HR) or bust (Out/BB). #8. D.J. LeMahieu BaRa: .648 OBP: .377 SLG: .547 OPS: .923 Notes: LeMahieu finds himself inside the top 10 because of a very modest walk rate (10%) & a great single rate (16.4%, ranked 22nd) to go along with the power (2nd in 3B%; 37th in HR%). #7. Ronald Acuna, Jr. BaRa: .650 OBP: .363 SLG: .516 OPS: .879 Notes: Speed A & tons of power get Acuna to sniff the top 5. Again, plagued slightly by a high walk rate (15.7%; 14th highest) and the 1-5 out actually hurts more than you'd think. Acuna is 6th in HR% and 20th in 2B%. #6. Trea Turner BaRa: .653 OBP: .363 SLG: .531 OPS: .894 Notes: Believe it or not, Turner's card actually ends up with slightly higher slugging than Acuna due to the lower walk rate. This Turner card gets you a little bit of everything...speed A, single at 9+, triples, and 18+ home run with a 10 OB. #5. Marcel Ozuna BaRa: .659 OBP: .391 SLG: .541 OPS: .932 Notes: Ozuna's 2020 card is terrifying to face. 10 OB with only 3 outs. His walk rate is lower than some of the other guys on this list (14.3%; ranked 35th), but he mashes at the 6th highest HR rate (tied with Acuna). Ozuna is an RBI machine and a multi-HR game waiting to happen. #4. Trevor Bauer BaRa: .427 OBP: .259 SLG: .320 OPS: .579 Notes: Bauer is easily the 2nd best pitcher in Showdown, and can make a case for #1 with his 7 IP, 5 Control...a true workhorse, you'll rarely need your bullpen at all in a game you throw him. The single on 19 and double on 20 raise the SLG% on him...truly his only flaw. #3. Ke'Bryan Hayes BaRa: .666 OBP: .391 SLG: .555 OPS: .946 Notes: Sneaky....Sneaky Ke'Bryan Hayes. This card is flithy. 10 OB, a miniscule 1-3 out, and a super low walk rate for a 10 (11.5%; ranked 86th). Yet he STILL maintains a near .400 OPS. He will hit well over .300 for you with the 2nd highest expected slugging percentage. Snag him as quickly as you can and lock him in as your 2 or 3 hitter. #2. Shane Bieber BaRa: .422 OBP: .271 SLG: .268 OPS: .539 Notes: Ah, so we have solved the Bauer vs. Bieber debate. Honestly anyone can make a case for either guy as the top pitcher in 2020 Showdown, but BaRa likes Bieber by... .005. The 6 control and single on 19 make Bieber's slugging percentage the best of all SP and it's not close. The trade here is that Bieber gives up a higher OBP, while he gives up less contact than Bauer. That gives him the #1 pitcher nod. #1. Juan Soto BaRa: .720 OBP: .440 SLG: .593 OPS: 1.032 Notes: Okay, so Hayes was sneaky good...Soto is in-your-face good. BaRa loves Soto as he's .054 BaRa higher than Hayes (which is basically 12 hitters worth of separation). All of this despite the highest walk rate in the set...He's an 11 OB with TWO outs on his chart. He literally gets on base almost half the time. I have no choice but to list this card's credentials:
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. is knocking on Soto's door in 2021. We all know how insane the "Greatest MLB Showdown Project" 2020 card set was. I mean, to put it into full perspective, if this were 2020, we'd have 2 weeks left of the season. This left many of us wondering....were those cards actually legitimate reflections of those players? Tim Locastro, Austin Slater, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Clint Frazier were absolute studs & Randy Arozarena was hitting home runs like he was facing an overconfident 12 year old piping batting practice fastballs. Fast forward to 2021 & Locastro barely plays, Slater has a .212 average, Hayes is probably a budding star but is on the 60-day IL, Frazier has a .608 OPS, and Arozarena has re-entered Earth's stratosphere as a solid everyday outfielder with 25-25 potential. All right, so back to the Showdown aspects of the conversation. Thanks to the incredible work by Matt Gula, the Showdown Card Bot allows any of us common folk to have the ability to make a card with a few clicks. If you haven't seen the Bot yet, click the link to the right below my photo. You won't be disappointed. With this newly magical power we're able to experiment for the very first time real-time Showdown card making. Any day you can check out your favorite players cards as they would perform to that day. So undeniably people have been able to create some crazy...insanely unrealistic cards here early in the season (A la Akil Baddoo, Yermin Mercedes, etc.). We have all sorts of Showdown fans. Fans of baseball, fans of data, fans of card games...I wholly encompass all 3, which is precisely why I created this blog. Anyone who knows me is acutely aware I'm a baseball nut. Today, I wanted to showcase some insane 2021 MLB Showdown cards. Some are fluky, some are legit, and some are just unlucky. The Lucky...Byron Buxton, OF. MIN Buxton was off to an MVP caliber start to the season with the Twins before going down on May 7th with a hip strain. The Twins CF hit 9 homers in 92 AB's with a .370 BA and a .408 OBP. Buxton simply is too swing happy to be a high OB Showdown card. His 23 strikeouts to 4 walks is a rate that screams regression from a .370 BA. Statcast has his expected batting average at 44 points lower & expected slugging at 66 points lower...Statcast considers him the 6th luckiest hitter in the MLB among 306 qualifiers. Don't expect his 5 OB 9-20 homer card of 2020, but a 7 OB 12-20 is not out of the picture. Just don't expect Bonds numbers when he returns from his injury. Jesse Winker, OF, CIN So Winker makes this list simply because Statcast says so. There's no doubt what Winker has done to start the season is legit. He's not your stereotypical pull-happy LH power hitter. Winker's spray chart is as random as a dart board. A 1.096 OPS for him just can't be sustainable...he's been SO good, but there's just no way he keeps this up for a full season. I'm concerned about a drop in walk rate and I have little confidence he maintains a .389 BABIP (7th in MLB). Buster Posey, C, SF Undoubtedly a leading candidate for comeback player of the year, Posey has had a career rejuvenation at the age of 34. Posey has 9 home runs, but just 4 doubles to go alongside 25 singles. He has great strike zone recognition (13/19 BB/K ratio) & Posey has always been able to hit...but this power surge is not sustainable as he is in just the 44th percentile in average exit velocity. Expect a 9 or 10 OB by the end of 2020, but temper your expectations with his extra base hit potential. Yermin Mercedes, DH, CWS "The Yerminator" couldn't have burst onto the scene faster, going 8 for his first 8 at the plate to start his big league career. I was quite skeptical at first, but this guy can really hit. His plate coverage is insane (shades of Vlad Guerrero Sr.) and his power is fairly legit. However, Baseball Savant has Mercedes' .344 BA as more than a bit lofty. Based on their metrics, his expected batting average is in the .275 range. Don't expect the 10 OB at the end of the year, as Mercedes doesn't walk a ton (12 BB in 168 PAs), but a solid 8 or 9 is not out of the picture as he does keep his strikeouts down (17% K rate). Taijuan Walker, SP, NYM Anyone else love his 3 control, 1-18 out card from last year with Toronto? Walker has been a underachieving prospect since his days coming up in Seattle's farm system. Mostly because of his inability to find the strike zone consistently. 2021 hasn't necessarily been that much different, but he's limited damage to the tone of a 2.05 ERA & 0.98 WHIP...simply because he's unhittable (.166 BA against). That's 2020 Shane Bieber-hard to hit. Unfortunately he has a very unsustainable .216 BABIP and his walk rate is 3.7/9 IP (his career average is 2.9). He's also only allowed 1 HR so far. Expect some regression here to something in the mid-3's ERA...he may keep a similar chart at year-end but don't expect the 6 control. 4 is realistic. John Means, SP, BAL Ah, John Means...I mean (no pun intended), who HASN'T thrown a no-hitter in 2021? Kidding. Mean's is supporting a miniscule 1.79 ERA while Baseball Savant's expected ERA based on quality of contact, K's, & BB's is a much more average (although still very good) 3.24. Piggybacking off of Walker's unsustainable BABIP, Means' is .187. (MLB average is .300). What's also been weird is Means ranks 96th among 126 qualifiers in barrel percentage. In other words, guys are squaring him up but balls are finding gloves. Means is a guy I expect a ton of regression from moving forward. Buyer beware. The Unlucky...Juan Soto, OF, WSH Pretty tough to follow up an 11 OB season last year. His 2020 card is truly an embarrassment of riches. 2021's card is okay so far but there hasn't been much power produced yet. Soto ranks 15th in the MLB in expected weighted on base average (xwOBA), which puts him squarely in with names like Devers, Freeman, Jose Ramirez, & Realmuto. His actual wOBA however is 77th in the MLB (among names like Seth Brown, Robbie Grossman & Tony Kemp). What's all this mean? Positive regression is coming. He's going to get his. Expect another 10+ OB, 18-20 homer & 16-17 double card coming. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL Ah, alas the other 11 OB card from 2020's shortened season. I'm a Braves fan & Freddie's early struggles have been confounding. The power is definitely still there, but he has been very all-or-nothing early in the season. Freddie Freeman has too much of a "back of the baseball card" to be concerned. This guy is a perennial All-Star and is a career .293 hitter in his age 31 season. The walks are there too...the hits are starting to come, as he's raised his average about 40 points the past 2.5 weeks. Freddie's xwOBA is 12th in the MLB but his actual wOBA is 64th. Again...like Soto he's finding barrels but also finding gloves. Never expect another 11 OB season from Freddie but a solid 9 pushing 10 should be the end result of 2021. Jose Ramirez, 3B, CLE Jose Ramirez is a diamond in the rough in what's left of a ravaged Cleveland lineup. Outside of the second half of the 2019 season where he was strangely horrible, Ramirez is a 5-tool player & a top 20, if not top 15 player in baseball. As of this writing, Ramirez's batting average is at .255 & he doesn't walk enough to push that OB needle up much further than 8 or 9. But he also rarely strikes out (never K'd more than 80 times in a season). He's already been a 30-30 player & he's in his prime at age 28. This card is already silly good with multiple single+, multiple double & 16+ homer. He's coming off a monster 2020 where he had a hard hit rate of 35.8%. This year? 47.5%. The only question is who awakens the sleeping giant? I expect potential A speed, 9+ OB and 17-20 HR with early teen single+. Jesus Luzardo, SP, OAK There's no doubt that Luzardo has nasty, front of the line rotation stuff. I just feel like every time I watch him pitch something fluky happens. The league is hitting .289 against him with a slugging of .465. His ERA is an alarming 5.79...but get this...his expected ERA is 3.72. His BABIP is a horribly unlucky .350. When Statcast takes out luck, his batting average against & slugging against should actually both be better than Shane Bieber. The kid's got electric stuff & is still only 23. He still struggles to keep his walks & fly ball rates down, so expect a lower control card with high K's and lots of outs...but he's no 0. A 2020 Taijuan Walker with more K's is more realistic...3 Control, 1-17 or 18 out & 1-9 K. Dylan Bundy, SP, LAA Woof. Dylan Bundy is 0-5 with a 6.50 ERA. The scary thing for Bundy is that although he's not a 6.50 ERA pitcher, his peripherals don't look extremely promising. His walk rate, K rate, and hard hit rate are all pretty much on his career averages. His BABIP unlike Luzardo is .310 (only slightly above league average of .300). Bundy had a tremendous 2020 season because he cut his homerun rate in half...and now it's back to normal (9 homers in 9 starts). Honestly I have no idea how his card is even this good. Maybe I put him in the wrong category? His stats will get better because he can't go the whole season at a 6.50 ERA...but his card probably won't. Jameson Taillon, SP, NYY Taillon has had an interesting start to 2021. He supports a gaudy 5.06 ERA on a very average to above average 1.21 WHIP. His walk rate is low, his K rate is high, his BABIP is actually below .300. What am I missing here? Well...Taillon has allowed 52 baserunners & 24 of those have scored (46%). In Taillon's last full season in 2018, that number was 30%. His home run rate has also doubled his career average. His home/road splits are nuts...(2.42 ERA at home/9.18 ERA on the road). Taillon's card is saved by that low WHIP, so honestly I think his card is reflective of his talent this year. His ERA will drop, but too many more homers and he might get the dreaded 20 roll on his chart. The Legit...Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, SD Can you imagine playing this card? Steals for days, 10 basically gets you at least on 2nd base & homer at 14? (insert head exploding emoji here). Tatis is ranked 8th in wOBA & 4th in expected wOBA...in other words, what you see isn't a fluke. He really is THAT good. His BABIP is .301 (right at league average) and he's 8th in the MLB in barrel %. Tatis is a supremely rare talent. Not only visually as he's arguably the most exciting player in baseball along with Acuna, Jr., but also because he has consistently proven to be immune to the high K = low batting average phenomena. It sounds childish but...he's just that good. If the price is right, this will be many's favorite card of 2021. Aaron Judge, OF, NYY My goodness can he actually stay healthy an entire year? Due to his mammoth rookie home run total, Judge too easily get shoe-horned into a raw power hitter, but as you can tell from his card, he's a plus defender and gets on base at a very high clip. He's hitting .308 with 26 walks and 12 homers. Judge is 5th in barrel % and is #1 in all of baseball in hard hit percentage (97.4 mph). Vlad Guerrero, Jr. is a long ways back in second place at 94.9 mph. When Judge makes contact, it's a different sound. His BABIP is a bit unsustainable at .374 but the guy does hit rockets...don't expect a 10 OB, but a 9 is very real with a similar chart for the end of 2021. Corbin Burnes, SP, MIL How good has the Milwaukee starting staff been in 2021? Burnes is a strikeout machine with 74 punch-outs in just 46 1/3 IP. His ERA is 2.33 but his FIP is 1.09...meaning he's even better than advertised. He's struck out 42% of batters while walking 2% & giving up only 2 homers in 8 starts. Burnes is on the cusp of Cy Young status...but like Jacob deGrom Cy Young status. In other words, the guy gets zero run support and is somehow 2-4 with 2 no decisions. This card screams a 6 IP 2020 Trevor Bauer & Burnes is pitching like him. This is no fluke...in 2020 Burnes struck out 37% of batters & also had a low 2's ERA. MLB Showdown, we have a new ace in the mix. Gerrit Cole, SP, NYY I hope you enjoyed your 2020 discounted price 20 roll pitcher chart home run version of Gerrit Cole. You'll probably never see it again. Cole has been his typical dominant self in 2021 with an absurd 11/1 strikeout to walk ratio. Last year he gave up 14 long balls in 73 innings. This year he's given up just 5 in 64 2/3. His ERA is 1.81 and his FIP is 1.72 so he's just as good as his stats tell you he is. He's a true workhorse and he's already on the cusp of pushing to a 7 IP card. I see his card maybe going to a 5 control 18 single, but otherwise I could very well see this as his card to end the season on his way to his first Cy Young award in his age 30 season.
Freddy Peralta, SP, MIL Electric arm #2 the Brewers can roll out onto the mound every 5th day. Peralta didn't see quite the same success as Burnes did last year but it wasn't his fault. He posted a 3.99 ERA with a 2.41 FIP. This year he just has average luck (2.54 ERA/2.96 FIP). His walk rate is alarming, but his stuff is undeniable. Peralta is unrefined but may be what folks refer to as "effectively wild." His BABIP is way low, which is why his ERA is below his FIP, but he's holding batters to a .140 average...and strikes them out at a 38% clip. He's the true 3-outcome version of pitchers...and because of that he can't go deep into ballgames. Peralta is basically a replica of Ohtani on the mound. Enjoy the short bursts of unhittable 1-2-3 innings with 3 K's, but prepare for the solo homers & get the bullpen warm. |
AuthorI'm Jason Miller. 31. Resident of Iowa. My Showdown nostalgia dates back to 2001. Archives
November 2021
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